Chris Kanthan -- CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE – A CRAZY AND IMPLAUSIBLE THEORY

 

CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE – A CRAZY AND IMPLAUSIBLE THEORY

There are numerous extremely popular videos on YouTube about China’s imminent demographic collapse. People like Peter Zeihan have popularized the claim that China will lose half its population by year 2050. Is that possible or probable? Simple demographic math will debunk this sensational claim. Let’s take a look.

Who will be dead by 2050?

So, how many Chinese will be dead by 2050 … i.e., in the next 28 years? Well, China’s life expectancy is now 78 years. Let’s assume that it stays the same (although it will likely go up).

In 2050: Who will be 78 years of age or older?

Answer: That will be people who are now (in year 2022) 50 years or older.

Next Question: How many people are now 50 or older? The answer comes from the population pyramid — about 33% of the population.

So, right away, we see the problem with the doom-and-gloom predictions. But the anti-China people also ignore something else: BIRTHS.

How many babies will be born in the next 28 years?

It’s hard to tell how many babies Chinese will have every year over the next three decades. Here’s the data for births per year over the last decade.

COVID obviously had a big impact, and perhaps the rate will go up after next year. However, let’s be conservative and assume that there will be on the average 10 million births per year.

That means 280 million new babies by year 2050.